Short comments
AI scenarios for the coming years
From an investor's perspective, a number of questions arise regarding the further development of artificial intelligence (AI). The key issue for the coming years will be the extent to which AI providers succeed in generating the revenues – particularly recurring revenues from company-specific solutions (AI agents) – that justify the current and planned enormous investments. There is also a certain amount of time pressure when it comes to revenues, as investment components – especially semiconductors and servers – will no longer be state-of-the-art in a few years and will need to be replaced.
In the long term, the extent to which AI solutions will spread in the global economy will be crucial. In an optimistic scenario, there is considerable potential in almost all areas of the economy, including industrial manufacturing. In the best-case scenario, AI solutions could far exceed the significance of many other innovations of the past, including the internet.
As far as the corporate sector is concerned, tech giants (hyperscalers) currently dominate, as they have the necessary resources to finance model developers and to position themselves as providers of comprehensive AI solutions. Alphabet (Google) has its own Gemini model, whose 3.0 Pro version has just made a quantum leap, Meta has its open-source platform Llama and Alibaba owns the very powerful Qwen models, which could become the standard in China and parts of Asia. Microsoft is focusing on its partnership with OpenAI (ChatGPT) and, since November, with Anthropic (Claude), in which Amazon has also recently made a significant investment. In addition to “established” large language models, different avenues are explored. One example is SLMs (small language models), promoted by the Chinese company DeepSeek. Such AI laboratories can be found in all regions of the world. Well-known examples in Europe are Mistral AI (France), Helsing (Germany), active in the defence sector, and Aleph Alpha (Germany), with a focus on government agencies. In China, AI models are developed in a closed ecosystem (examples include 01.AI, ZhipuAI, Moonshot AI). In the US, Elon Musk's xAI(Grok) is worth mentioning.
We expect hyperscalersto continue playing a central role in the large-scale provision of AI solutions for businesses and public authorities in the coming years. This means that AI is likely to remain a growth factor, particularly for the US economy and the profits of leading US tech companies. A dip in sales or investment is possible at any time, especially after 2026, with budgets likely not finalised after 2026.
(December 2025)
Central banks: Increased gold purchases since 2022
With Russian foreign exchange reserves frozen following the invasion of Ukraine in the spring of 2022, central banks have increased their gold holdings at the expense of foreign exchange reserves (especially US dollars). The unpredictability of the Trump administration is likely to keep central banks diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar. At present, however, it is mainly financial investors (via ETFs) who are driving up demand.
Gold production has changed little since 2017. If demand increases only slightly in a commodity market with limited opportunities for supply expansion, price increases can be enormous. Gold production is likely to rise in the coming years. Whether this will be enough to meet demand is not a foregone conclusion.
(November 2025)
China: Softer after a good first half of the year
China, the world’s second-largest economy after the US, will remain challenged in the coming years, as falling property prices will not only put pressure on consumer spending but also on the financial system (rising proportion of non-performing mortgages and commercial loans).
China's export economy is less affected by higher US import tariffs than expected. Nevertheless, consumption and production data point to a loss in economic momentum.
Government stimulus measures likely will continue to keep growth in line with the government’s target.
(October 2025)
World economy: Continued decent economic data
The economic data have been coming in about as expected. Europe's economic growth is modest but positive, with the industrial sector stable overall. The purchasing managers index, a timely indicator based on company surveys, rose in July in the eurozone overall and especially in the industrial sector, with the highest values for quite some time in the largest economies, Germany and France.
In the US, growth in private consumption, the main driver of the economy, slowed significantly in the first half of the year. This slowdown is reflected in the labour market data, although there are no signs of a significant turn for the worse. In fact, the US still has the highest purchasing manager indices among large economies, with the industry PMI rising markedly in August.
US import tariffs are likely to be 15-20% higher by the end of the year than at the beginning of the year. The tariffs increase government revenues. This tax (on imports) is borne by companies that export to the US, US importers and, ultimately, US consumers, if the increased tariffs are passed on. Based on export price indices from US trading partners, anecdotal evidence from US companies and the US consumer price index for goods, it appears that all ofthe above-mentioned players are currently bearing part of the increased tariff burden.
After better-than-expected growth in the first half of the year, China has recently started to lose momentum. The US has again extended the window for negotiations in the tariff dispute with China, which is slightly positive for the Chinese economy this year.
In our base scenario, we see certain disruptions to economic activity due to tariffs, but no slump, not even in the US. From next year onwards, US private households will benefit from lower taxes. Declining immigration is causing a structural loss in US growth. In Europe, the effects of tariffs are less pronounced than in the US, and higher government spending, primarily in Germany, is supporting the economy. China's government will continue to keep the economy on track, in line with its targets. The current low oil prices are slightly positive for the global economy and consumers. Low oil prices are slightly positive for the global economy.
In the medium term, we would not overestimate the impact of a partial reorganisation of world trade, which means that no significant reassessment of the global economic outlook is necessary for the coming years.
(September 2025)
World economy: Decent economic data
The economic data currently point to largely stable economic trends in Europe and Asia. In the US, there are few signs of weakness. In the eurozone, stabilisation in the industrial economy is a positive, although the data are partly influenced by advance purchases due to expected higher US tariffs starting in August. These advance purchases will cease in August at the latest, and the global industrial sector is likely to experience some dip.
We continue to expect US import tariffs to be significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, which is evident in recent deals of the EU and Japan with the US (both deals encompassing a US import tariff rate of 15%). The higher tariffs (which are taxes on imports) will have to be absorbed by companies exporting to the US, US importers and ultimately US consumers when the higher duties are passed on. Based on export price indices of US trading partners, anecdotal evidence from US companies and the US goods consumer price index (some segments exhibiting a high import content recorded significantly higher prices in June), all ofthe aforementioned playersare currently bearing part of the increased tariff burden.
In our base scenario, we see some disruption to economic activity due to tariffs, particularly in the US, but no slump. While the tariff effect in the US is likely to lead to a certain loss of momentum in the coming months, higher tariffs will be offset by falling tax rates for private individuals in the coming year. In the US, the decline in immigration is likely to lead to a certain loss in potential growth. The current low oil prices are slightly positive, especially for US consumers.
In Europe, the tariff effects are lower than in the US, and higher government spending, primarily in Germany, is supporting the economy. China’s government is keeping the economy on track in line with its targets.
In the medium term, we would not overestimate the impact of changes in tariffs and world trade. We thus see no need for a major reassessment of the global economic outlook in the medium term.
Company earnings for the second quarter are above expectations in the US, which is reflected in an upward trend in earnings forecasts (12m forward in the chart). In Europe, earnings came in about as expected, with the weak US dollar weighing.
The impact of US import tariffs has been discussed by many companies in recent months and appears to be manageable for most companies. Nonetheless, some negative surprises are likely in the third and fourth quarter.
According to analysts’ estimates, double-digit growth rates in corporate profits are to be expected in both Europe and the US this year and next.
(August 2025)